What Are the Payout Odds if Rodriguez Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?
Rodriguez was offered with a payout of $1200 for every $100 bet to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. On May 1, Rodriguez was scratched from the Derby.
Rodriguez is a 3 year old colt and has raced from 2024 to 2025. He was sired by Authentic out of the Cherokee Run mare Cayala.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Rodriguez Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Trainer (9)
Bob Baffert returns to Churchill Downs after serving a multiple years suspension.
Baffert has won more Kentucky Derby races than any other trainer in this year's race.
Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times, tying the record for most wins by a trainer with Ben Jones.
Those winners include:
- Silver Charm (1997)
- Real Quiet (1998)
- War Emblem (2002)
- American Pharoah (2015)
- Justify (2018)
- Authentic (2020)
Jockey (7)
Mike E. Smith has won the Kentucky Derby twice in his career:
- 2005 – Riding 50–1 longshot Giacomo, Smith secured his first Derby victory in a stunning upset.
- 2018 – Smith guided the undefeated Justify to victory, who went on to win the Triple Crown, making Smith the oldest jockey to achieve this feat at age 52.
Past Performance (7)
His most recent start was a win at the Wood Memorial.
Eleven Wood Memorial winners have gone on to be victorious at the Kentucky Derby. But don't get too excited. The last to do so was in 2000.
- Gallant Fox – 1930
- Twenty Grand – 1931
- Omaha – 1935
- Johnstown – 1939
- Count Fleet – 1943
- Hoop Jr. – 1945
- Assault – 1946
- Middleground – 1950
- Count Turf – 1951
- Pleasant Colony – 1981
- Fusaichi Pegasus – 2000
Rodriguez finished 3rd in his prior race, the San Felipe, and 2nd before that at the Robert B. Lewis.
More Reason to Bet on Rodriguez
Rodriguez is being viewed as the fastest of the contenders in this year's Kentucky Derby.
From CBS Sports:
Rodriguez has done his best running when on the lead, and the No. 4 post will certainly force jockey Mike Smith to send the horse to the front. His other main rivals for the early lead, East Avenue and American Promise, both drew outside him, meaning he could feel pace pressure even if he is able to get to the front. Rodriguez could very well be first the first time under the wire, but will he be there the second time?
Why Final Rodriguez Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Post Position (5)
While post 4 has produced multiple winners, including Super Saver in 2010, it is not among the most successful starting positions.
Another Big Concern (4)
The expected pace scenario for the Kentucky Derby does not suit his style.
Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby
*Listed in order of post position
| Kentucky Derby 2025 | Trainer | Jockey | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 20-1 |
| 2. Neoequos | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Prat** | 30-1 |
| 3. Final Gambit | Brad Cox | Luan Machado | 30-1 |
| 4. Rodríguez | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 12-1 |
| 5. American Promise | D. Wayne Lukas | Nik Juárez | 30-1 |
| 6. Admire Daytona | Yukihiro Kato | Christophe Lemaire | 30-1 |
| 7. Luxor Café | Noriyuki Hori | João Moreira | 15-1 |
| 8. Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 3-1 |
| 9. Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12-1 |
| 10. Grande | Todd Pletcher | John Velázquez | 20-1 |
| 11. Flying Mohawk | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos | 30-1 |
| 12. East Avenue | Brendan Walsh | Manny Franco | 20-1 |
| 13. Publisher | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 |
| 14. Tiztastic | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 20-1 |
| 15. Render Judgment | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 16. Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan Vargas | 30-1 |
| 17. Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose Ortiz | 6-1 |
| 18. Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Júnior Alvarado | 5-1 |
| 19. Chunk of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 30-1 |
| 20. Owen Almighty | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano | 30-1 |
| 21. Baeza - ae | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat | 12-1 |
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